And so it ends...

New Hampshire was actually the first state called Tuesday evening and consequently the first state called for Senator Barack Obama, part of a night in which the junior senator from Illinois was literally unstoppable. According to Real Clear Politics the race was close but Senator Obama took the state's four electoral votes 55% to McCain's 45% with 94% of the precincts accounted for.

In other important news, the Democrats in New Hampshire emerged victorious in their quest for a majority in the senate with Democratic ex-governor Jeanne Shaheen coming out on top of incumbent Republican Senator John Sununu. This was a hard-fought rematch of the two's 2002 fight in which the results were reversed. According to US News & World Report the Democrat Shaheen was able to achieve such a victory due to her consistent attacks on Sununu for being "in sync" with George W. Bush.

Since 2002 when Sununu beat Shaheen and earlier year in which the state elected George W. Bush as president, the state has moved from red to purple to what now seems to be a solid blue.

Although John McCain fought hard in this state from the beginning when the state helped him win the nomination in the primaries, I don't think anyone would have said the senator from Arizona ever had that much of a chance in blue New Hampshire.

1-day to go!!!!

With one day to go, the eyes of America, are, to some degree, on New Hampshire. As I mentioned in my previous blog the state's importance cannot be over-stated and candidates and their surrogates will be rushing in for a last ditch two days of campaigning.

Although the Republicans are hopeful and certainly have refused to back down, I think I can make my final prediction for how New Hampshire will vote this election pretty confidently. With the state clearly trending Democratic with their state legislature, national representatives, and senators, and the polls showing Obama with a strong lead, I'm going to call New Hampshire's four electoral votes for Senator Obama.

Sorry John McCain, I think it would take a miracle.

McCain's relationship with New Hampshire

The importance of this tiny state in the national election can hardly be over-stated; the fact is quite clear with the amount of campaigning each of the candidates have been doing in the state. But although McCain has usually had a good relationship with the state; they propelled him to victory in the primaries this year and the campaign thought his brand of Republicanism would go over well with the New Hampshirians.

But according to a recent study conducted by the University of New Hampshire a third of the state's electorate are new since the state went for George Bush over Al Gore in 2000, and the new electorate strongly lean towards the left.

Although the polls and the study would say otherwise, McCain and his campaign clearly believe they still have a chance, and the Democrats aren't backing down either. Both of the Clintons have been or will be in the state this week and everyone knows its not over til its over.

New poll

It just keeps looking worse for Senator John McCain in New Hampshire. A new poll was released this week by WMUR at the University of New Hampshire showing Senator Obama leading McCain 58% to 33%. The poll was conducted from October 25-27 and polled 652 voters.

Obama has widened his overall lead over McCain and also his lead among independent voters, a crucial vote, in the state.

The poll also found the most important issues for New Hampshirians in the election are jobs and the economy, followed by the war in Iraq, the campaign against terrorism, the recent stock market crash, and health care. This seems to represent the general national trend in which concerns about the economy and related matters have substantially reduced the importance of otherwise big issues such as Iraq and healthcare.

This poll and others like it look increasingly bad for McCain in a state he was banking on to win.

Congress seat up for grabs

The first congressional district is embroiled in a race either candidate can win according to Dan Tuohy of the "Union Leader." In a recent article in the publication Tuohy chronicles the race between Democrat incumbent Carol Shea-Porter, and former 1st district congressman Republican Jeb Bradley. Two years ago in 2006 Shea-Porter upset Bradley, and Bradley "aims to return the favor." Either candidate could win the race which has, like every other government position up for grabs, become all about the economy.

Advertising Update

McCain's campaign has decreased their spending on advertisements in the state each week for several weeks running, a practice seconded by second district GOP candidate Jennifer Horn. This could mean bad things for the GOP in the state, or it could just mean that the campaigns are allocating resources to other forms of communication and campaigning. We'll know soon enough what it means and what its consequences are though.

Emily's List in NH

In today's edition of the Nashua Telegraph there is an article entitled "Emily's List targeting new voters in NH."

I must admit I had never heard of the group before the article but was intrigued.

Apparently Emily's List is a liberal special-interest group supporting abortion rights and they have begun an aggressive project in New Hampshire that could help Democrat Jeanne Shaheen defeat Republican John Sununu in the U.S Senate race here.

The group practices micro-targeting; researching potential Democratic voters who could vote for Shaheen and send them pro-Shaheen mail and poll the targeted voters and those who weren't.

According to the article the group will have sent more than 700,000 pieces of mail by Election Day. Whether this group and their efforts have an impact on the Election or not may never be known, but Sheehan's chances of winning the seat grow daily, just as the Democratic presidential nominee Obama's popularity in the state.