New Hampshire was actually the first state called Tuesday evening and consequently the first state called for Senator Barack Obama, part of a night in which the junior senator from Illinois was literally unstoppable. According to Real Clear Politics the race was close but Senator Obama took the state's four electoral votes 55% to McCain's 45% with 94% of the precincts accounted for.
In other important news, the Democrats in New Hampshire emerged victorious in their quest for a majority in the senate with Democratic ex-governor Jeanne Shaheen coming out on top of incumbent Republican Senator John Sununu. This was a hard-fought rematch of the two's 2002 fight in which the results were reversed. According to US News & World Report the Democrat Shaheen was able to achieve such a victory due to her consistent attacks on Sununu for being "in sync" with George W. Bush.
Since 2002 when Sununu beat Shaheen and earlier year in which the state elected George W. Bush as president, the state has moved from red to purple to what now seems to be a solid blue.
Although John McCain fought hard in this state from the beginning when the state helped him win the nomination in the primaries, I don't think anyone would have said the senator from Arizona ever had that much of a chance in blue New Hampshire.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Sunday, November 2, 2008
1-day to go!!!!
With one day to go, the eyes of America, are, to some degree, on New Hampshire. As I mentioned in my previous blog the state's importance cannot be over-stated and candidates and their surrogates will be rushing in for a last ditch two days of campaigning.
Although the Republicans are hopeful and certainly have refused to back down, I think I can make my final prediction for how New Hampshire will vote this election pretty confidently. With the state clearly trending Democratic with their state legislature, national representatives, and senators, and the polls showing Obama with a strong lead, I'm going to call New Hampshire's four electoral votes for Senator Obama.
Sorry John McCain, I think it would take a miracle.
Although the Republicans are hopeful and certainly have refused to back down, I think I can make my final prediction for how New Hampshire will vote this election pretty confidently. With the state clearly trending Democratic with their state legislature, national representatives, and senators, and the polls showing Obama with a strong lead, I'm going to call New Hampshire's four electoral votes for Senator Obama.
Sorry John McCain, I think it would take a miracle.
McCain's relationship with New Hampshire
The importance of this tiny state in the national election can hardly be over-stated; the fact is quite clear with the amount of campaigning each of the candidates have been doing in the state. But although McCain has usually had a good relationship with the state; they propelled him to victory in the primaries this year and the campaign thought his brand of Republicanism would go over well with the New Hampshirians.
But according to a recent study conducted by the University of New Hampshire a third of the state's electorate are new since the state went for George Bush over Al Gore in 2000, and the new electorate strongly lean towards the left.
Although the polls and the study would say otherwise, McCain and his campaign clearly believe they still have a chance, and the Democrats aren't backing down either. Both of the Clintons have been or will be in the state this week and everyone knows its not over til its over.
But according to a recent study conducted by the University of New Hampshire a third of the state's electorate are new since the state went for George Bush over Al Gore in 2000, and the new electorate strongly lean towards the left.
Although the polls and the study would say otherwise, McCain and his campaign clearly believe they still have a chance, and the Democrats aren't backing down either. Both of the Clintons have been or will be in the state this week and everyone knows its not over til its over.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
New poll
It just keeps looking worse for Senator John McCain in New Hampshire. A new poll was released this week by WMUR at the University of New Hampshire showing Senator Obama leading McCain 58% to 33%. The poll was conducted from October 25-27 and polled 652 voters.
Obama has widened his overall lead over McCain and also his lead among independent voters, a crucial vote, in the state.
The poll also found the most important issues for New Hampshirians in the election are jobs and the economy, followed by the war in Iraq, the campaign against terrorism, the recent stock market crash, and health care. This seems to represent the general national trend in which concerns about the economy and related matters have substantially reduced the importance of otherwise big issues such as Iraq and healthcare.
This poll and others like it look increasingly bad for McCain in a state he was banking on to win.
Obama has widened his overall lead over McCain and also his lead among independent voters, a crucial vote, in the state.
The poll also found the most important issues for New Hampshirians in the election are jobs and the economy, followed by the war in Iraq, the campaign against terrorism, the recent stock market crash, and health care. This seems to represent the general national trend in which concerns about the economy and related matters have substantially reduced the importance of otherwise big issues such as Iraq and healthcare.
This poll and others like it look increasingly bad for McCain in a state he was banking on to win.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Congress seat up for grabs
The first congressional district is embroiled in a race either candidate can win according to Dan Tuohy of the "Union Leader." In a recent article in the publication Tuohy chronicles the race between Democrat incumbent Carol Shea-Porter, and former 1st district congressman Republican Jeb Bradley. Two years ago in 2006 Shea-Porter upset Bradley, and Bradley "aims to return the favor." Either candidate could win the race which has, like every other government position up for grabs, become all about the economy.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Advertising Update
McCain's campaign has decreased their spending on advertisements in the state each week for several weeks running, a practice seconded by second district GOP candidate Jennifer Horn. This could mean bad things for the GOP in the state, or it could just mean that the campaigns are allocating resources to other forms of communication and campaigning. We'll know soon enough what it means and what its consequences are though.
Emily's List in NH
In today's edition of the Nashua Telegraph there is an article entitled "Emily's List targeting new voters in NH."
I must admit I had never heard of the group before the article but was intrigued.
Apparently Emily's List is a liberal special-interest group supporting abortion rights and they have begun an aggressive project in New Hampshire that could help Democrat Jeanne Shaheen defeat Republican John Sununu in the U.S Senate race here.
The group practices micro-targeting; researching potential Democratic voters who could vote for Shaheen and send them pro-Shaheen mail and poll the targeted voters and those who weren't.
According to the article the group will have sent more than 700,000 pieces of mail by Election Day. Whether this group and their efforts have an impact on the Election or not may never be known, but Sheehan's chances of winning the seat grow daily, just as the Democratic presidential nominee Obama's popularity in the state.
I must admit I had never heard of the group before the article but was intrigued.
Apparently Emily's List is a liberal special-interest group supporting abortion rights and they have begun an aggressive project in New Hampshire that could help Democrat Jeanne Shaheen defeat Republican John Sununu in the U.S Senate race here.
The group practices micro-targeting; researching potential Democratic voters who could vote for Shaheen and send them pro-Shaheen mail and poll the targeted voters and those who weren't.
According to the article the group will have sent more than 700,000 pieces of mail by Election Day. Whether this group and their efforts have an impact on the Election or not may never be known, but Sheehan's chances of winning the seat grow daily, just as the Democratic presidential nominee Obama's popularity in the state.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
10 Days to Go!
In a state that carried John McCain in two primaries, 2000 and 2008, and a state John McCain has been once again counting on to carry him to victory in this election, its looking grimmer and grimmer for the Republican.
According to Pollster.com Senator Barack Obama leads Senator McCain in the polls by about 5 percentage points, pollster polls showing Obama with 49.9% to McCain's 44.4%.
Polling website Fivethirtyeight.com already shows New Hampshire as a blue state, in other words, they're pretty sure the state's four electoral votes are going to go for the Obama this election.
While most trends are negative for McCain in the state, there is no denying that the state will be close on election day, and according to the most recent Zogby interactive poll, conducted on October 19 with 466 people, the two candidates are in a dead heat, separated only by several tenths of a point.
Issues that are important to New Hampshirians, things such as the war and taxes would seemingly favor McCain and have favored the Republican candidate in the past in the state, so it would be quite surprising if, even were McCain to lose in the state, Republican voters did not make a good showing.
So with about ten days to go until election day, and early voting already in full swing, the state of New Hampshire appears too close to call, but if I were forced to choose today, I would say that the state will inevitably swing Democratic this election day, delivering their four electoral votes to Barack Obama.
According to Pollster.com Senator Barack Obama leads Senator McCain in the polls by about 5 percentage points, pollster polls showing Obama with 49.9% to McCain's 44.4%.
Polling website Fivethirtyeight.com already shows New Hampshire as a blue state, in other words, they're pretty sure the state's four electoral votes are going to go for the Obama this election.
While most trends are negative for McCain in the state, there is no denying that the state will be close on election day, and according to the most recent Zogby interactive poll, conducted on October 19 with 466 people, the two candidates are in a dead heat, separated only by several tenths of a point.
Issues that are important to New Hampshirians, things such as the war and taxes would seemingly favor McCain and have favored the Republican candidate in the past in the state, so it would be quite surprising if, even were McCain to lose in the state, Republican voters did not make a good showing.
So with about ten days to go until election day, and early voting already in full swing, the state of New Hampshire appears too close to call, but if I were forced to choose today, I would say that the state will inevitably swing Democratic this election day, delivering their four electoral votes to Barack Obama.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Automated Calling
According to UnionLeader.com the race in New Hampshire is one of the places where Republicans are using automated calls to try to link Barack Obama to former terrorist William Ayers. The call says the following:
“Hello. I’m calling for John McCain and the RNC because you need to know that Barack Obama has worked closely with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers, whose organization bombed the U.S. capitol, the Pentagon, a judge’s home and killed Americans. And Democrats will enact an extreme leftist agenda if they take control of Washington. Barack Obama and his Democratic allies lack the judgment to lead our country. This call was paid for by McCain-Palin 2008 and the Republican National Committee at 202-863-8500.”
This campaign tactic has been heavily criticized by not only the Democrats but also Republicans and people within McCain's campaign. McCain state chairman Peter Spaulding stated that while he does not love the practice it is wrong to label the calls inaccurate, he simply thinks they are annoying.
The Democrats were so opposed to the practice they brought in Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts to criticize the calls within the state directly to the voters.
The consensus among Republicans opposed to the calls seems to simply be that the calls are annoying and maybe not completely relevant with their focus on Obama's ties to Ayers, but they are accurate and cannot be criticized as untrue. How much impact they're going to have? As of yet that remains to be seen but if polling is any indication, they haven't had much of impact as McCain still trails Obama by a sizeable amount in the state.
“Hello. I’m calling for John McCain and the RNC because you need to know that Barack Obama has worked closely with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers, whose organization bombed the U.S. capitol, the Pentagon, a judge’s home and killed Americans. And Democrats will enact an extreme leftist agenda if they take control of Washington. Barack Obama and his Democratic allies lack the judgment to lead our country. This call was paid for by McCain-Palin 2008 and the Republican National Committee at 202-863-8500.”
This campaign tactic has been heavily criticized by not only the Democrats but also Republicans and people within McCain's campaign. McCain state chairman Peter Spaulding stated that while he does not love the practice it is wrong to label the calls inaccurate, he simply thinks they are annoying.
The Democrats were so opposed to the practice they brought in Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts to criticize the calls within the state directly to the voters.
The consensus among Republicans opposed to the calls seems to simply be that the calls are annoying and maybe not completely relevant with their focus on Obama's ties to Ayers, but they are accurate and cannot be criticized as untrue. How much impact they're going to have? As of yet that remains to be seen but if polling is any indication, they haven't had much of impact as McCain still trails Obama by a sizeable amount in the state.
Adversaries on the Warpath
Well, shocking as it may be, Clinton is not done on the campaign trail this election. This afternoon Senator Hilary Clinton announced that she will be in New Hampshire next week campaigning for her former opponent Senator Obama.
In a conference call she spoke of the importance of New Hampshire for the election and also vocalized criticism of the way Senator McCain has been conducting his campaign.
In other New Hampshire campaign news, the McCain campaign has announced that on Thursday Senator Lieberman and former Governor of New Jersey Christine Todd Whitman will both be campaigning in the state. Senator McCain himself will be stopping in the state tomorrow for a rally at St. Anselm College.
Although the polls are continually becoming more favorable to the Democrats and Obama this election, as I seem to keep repeating, it is not over yet and the Republicans are not finished here.
In a conference call she spoke of the importance of New Hampshire for the election and also vocalized criticism of the way Senator McCain has been conducting his campaign.
In other New Hampshire campaign news, the McCain campaign has announced that on Thursday Senator Lieberman and former Governor of New Jersey Christine Todd Whitman will both be campaigning in the state. Senator McCain himself will be stopping in the state tomorrow for a rally at St. Anselm College.
Although the polls are continually becoming more favorable to the Democrats and Obama this election, as I seem to keep repeating, it is not over yet and the Republicans are not finished here.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Palin Power
At a rally in Dover on Monday Sarah Palin made her first campaign stop in the state as she kicks off her first swing through the New England states.
She delivered a "toned-down stump speech" and called for a McCain comeback a la his New Hampshire primary comeback in January. she also attempted to appeal to the people of New Hampshire by praising their state and making comparisons to her own state and people.
The main focus of the speech was on economic issues such as taxes and federal spending and Palin succeeded in generating less angry outbursts concerning her opponent and more genuine partisanship excitement at this rally.
She delivered a "toned-down stump speech" and called for a McCain comeback a la his New Hampshire primary comeback in January. she also attempted to appeal to the people of New Hampshire by praising their state and making comparisons to her own state and people.
The main focus of the speech was on economic issues such as taxes and federal spending and Palin succeeded in generating less angry outbursts concerning her opponent and more genuine partisanship excitement at this rally.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Does New Hampshire really matter?
The quick answer would be yes, New Hampshire matters immensely in the presidential race. But for a state that only has four electoral votes, it sure seems like a lot of fuss for nothing. Why is New Hampshire so important?
Obviously from the number of campaign stops, the presidential contenders recognize the state's importance. They remember that it was New Hampshire's four electoral votes that tipped the scales in George Bush's favor in 2000 and therefore it was these four electoral votes that cost Al Gore the presidency.
A recent study conducted by the University of New Hampshire also finds that a third of potential voters this election have just recently become eligible to vote. The same study also finds that these new voters are far more likely to identify with the Democratic party than Republicans, seconding other studies that have shown New Hampshire becoming increasingly bluer as time goes by, or, as some put it, New Hampshire should now be color-coded "purple."
These findings, from the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire, are based on analysis by three experts -- in demography, polling, and election registration data -- of recently released demographic, polling and voter registration data.
All of these findings simply leave one to wonder whether New Hampshire can even be defined as a swing state anymore. I guess we'll find out on November 4.
Obviously from the number of campaign stops, the presidential contenders recognize the state's importance. They remember that it was New Hampshire's four electoral votes that tipped the scales in George Bush's favor in 2000 and therefore it was these four electoral votes that cost Al Gore the presidency.
A recent study conducted by the University of New Hampshire also finds that a third of potential voters this election have just recently become eligible to vote. The same study also finds that these new voters are far more likely to identify with the Democratic party than Republicans, seconding other studies that have shown New Hampshire becoming increasingly bluer as time goes by, or, as some put it, New Hampshire should now be color-coded "purple."
These findings, from the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire, are based on analysis by three experts -- in demography, polling, and election registration data -- of recently released demographic, polling and voter registration data.
All of these findings simply leave one to wonder whether New Hampshire can even be defined as a swing state anymore. I guess we'll find out on November 4.
Busy New Hampshire
Courtesy of Boston Globe:
New Hampshire will continue its central role in the presidential race on Thursday.
John McCain's campaign just announced that his daughter Meghan will campaign in the state, meeting volunteers at the campaign office in Nashua, then spending time with students at the University of New Hampshire in Durham.
Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama will also be in the state, for a rally in Londonderry.
Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her husband Todd are both stumping in New Hampshire today.
Along with these notable visits, Senator and Vice Presidential candidate Joe Biden spoke Monday in several important New Hampshire districts, criticizing McCain and praising New Hampshirians for their wisdom. Recent polls show Obama with a sizable but not insurmountable lead in the state that is being heavily sought after by Republicans as well.
Biden was well received at both of his speaking stops, although when he campaigned for president in the state in both 1988 and 2008, he was given a lackluster reception. He was cheered for his criticisms of Bush and his promise to withdraw the troops from Iraq.
Although the race is close and seems slightly tilted in Obama's favor, the Republicans are still pushing as Governor Sarah Palin makes her first visit to the state since joining the McCain ticket and McCain sends his daughter in to do some more campaign work tomorrow.
New Hampshire will continue its central role in the presidential race on Thursday.
John McCain's campaign just announced that his daughter Meghan will campaign in the state, meeting volunteers at the campaign office in Nashua, then spending time with students at the University of New Hampshire in Durham.
Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama will also be in the state, for a rally in Londonderry.
Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her husband Todd are both stumping in New Hampshire today.
Along with these notable visits, Senator and Vice Presidential candidate Joe Biden spoke Monday in several important New Hampshire districts, criticizing McCain and praising New Hampshirians for their wisdom. Recent polls show Obama with a sizable but not insurmountable lead in the state that is being heavily sought after by Republicans as well.
Biden was well received at both of his speaking stops, although when he campaigned for president in the state in both 1988 and 2008, he was given a lackluster reception. He was cheered for his criticisms of Bush and his promise to withdraw the troops from Iraq.
Although the race is close and seems slightly tilted in Obama's favor, the Republicans are still pushing as Governor Sarah Palin makes her first visit to the state since joining the McCain ticket and McCain sends his daughter in to do some more campaign work tomorrow.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Michelle Obama Rally
At a rally in Keene, New Hampshire, Mrs. Obama on Wednesday spoke to college students and contrasted her husband's debate performance the previous night with his opponent, who throughout her speech remained nameless. She called Senator Obama "smart, calm, respectful, intelligent, and connected," among other praises. She also stressed the importance of the student vote and the importance of the vote in New Hampshire as well.
This was not the first time for Mrs. Obama to visit the important swing state but it was her first time to directly appeal to the students in the state, a vote Senator Obama has been courting throughout his campaign (see story).
This was not the first time for Mrs. Obama to visit the important swing state but it was her first time to directly appeal to the students in the state, a vote Senator Obama has been courting throughout his campaign (see story).
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Senate Race
There is a senate seat opening up in this election for New Hampshirians, but it doesn't look as if it will be much of a contest. Senator John Sununu, the Republican is being challenged by 3-time Democratic governor Jeanne Shaheen. Early polling gives Shaheen a double-digit lead. Since 2006 when Sununu was elected the Democrats have pretty much taken over the state, with a Democratic governor and a house full of Democrats.
Mrs. Obama in NH
Michelle Obama will be back in New Hampshire tomorrow, Wednesday, and is set to have a rally at Keene State College at 11:30 a.m. Apparently Obama's campaign directors understand the importance of this state and Mrs. Obama will be stressing the importance of voter registration for young people in tomorrow's rally.
Another new poll
Since the pollsters never rest, we have yet another new poll from the state of New Hampshire today that shows Senator Obama up by eight points in this important state. This poll consisted of 813 likely voters and showed 53% supporting Obama to 45% for McCain.
Looks like another swing state is leaning heavily towards Obama.
Looks like another swing state is leaning heavily towards Obama.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
NH: Live Free or Die
Several weeks ago Senators John McCain and Barrack Obama made campaign stops in New Hampshire. McCain however, chose for his campaign stop what else but a Nascar race, making it McCain's first real effort to court the Nascar vote, a sizeable group of people in the country.
New Hampshire has historically been a reliable, Republican voting state, but in the 2006 elections, Democrats won both house seats, re-elected their Democratic governor John Lynch, and won control of both houses in the state, questioning their loyalty to the Republicans.
To further prove the point, most polling know shows the two presidential candidates locked in a dead heat in the state.
Regardless, the McCain campaign stop was used for the two-fold purpose of courting the Nascar vote and endeavoring to win some support from New Hampshirians, probably the only state in the Northeast both candidates consider up for grabs.
New Hampshire has historically been a reliable, Republican voting state, but in the 2006 elections, Democrats won both house seats, re-elected their Democratic governor John Lynch, and won control of both houses in the state, questioning their loyalty to the Republicans.
To further prove the point, most polling know shows the two presidential candidates locked in a dead heat in the state.
Regardless, the McCain campaign stop was used for the two-fold purpose of courting the Nascar vote and endeavoring to win some support from New Hampshirians, probably the only state in the Northeast both candidates consider up for grabs.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Conflicting Polls
Polls Conflict In New Hampshire:
A Marist poll of 763 New Hampshire Registered Voters taken September 17-21 shows Obama leading McCain 48%-45% among registered voters and 51%-45% among likely voters. However, a Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 700 likely New Hampshire voters taken September 23 shows McCain leading Obama 49%-47%.
The Marist report was a survey of registered voters that found Obama with a 6% lead over McCain among likely voters and a 3% lead over McCain among registered voters, other statistics include:
77% of McCain supporters say they are firmly behind him while 81% of Obama's supporters strongly back him; only 4% of both candidates supporters say they could change their minds at the polls.
70% of Obama's backers are excited about their candidate while only 49% of McCain's are enthused.
52% of Obama supporters say the economy is their main focus while 39% of McCain's make the same claim and 16% of Obama's voters say the war in Iraq is a major concern while 5%of McCain's see it as a deciding issue.
Some of the other interesting points is that Obama has a lead among independent voters but more voters think McCain's economic record is stronger than Obama's. Also, New Hampshire voters view both Palin and Biden favorably.
Some interesting statistics from the Rasmussen report which was a telephone survey of 700 likely voters include:
Seventy-four percent (74%) of Obama voters say they will vote with enthusiasm for their candidate, a feeling shared by 68% of McCain voters.
Twenty-six percent (26%) of McCain voters say they’re voting primarily against Obama while 20% of Obama voters are voting primarily against McCain.
McCain is now viewed favorably by 60% of New Hampshire voters, Obama by 54%. Those figures reflect a three-point improvement for McCain and a single-point decline for Obama.
Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 53% in New Hampshire and unfavorably by 45%. For Delaware Senator Joe Biden, the numbers are 49% favorable and 45% unfavorable. Feelings both for and against are more strongly held about Palin.
Fifty-one percent (51%) say Palin was the right choice for McCain while 40% say Obama made the right decision in selecting Biden.
In other news, Obama has a slight lead among unaffiliated voters although his overall approval ratings in New Hampshire have been steadily decreasing since June. The state has gone from leaning Democratic to a toss-up in Rasmussen's balance of power ratings.
A Marist poll of 763 New Hampshire Registered Voters taken September 17-21 shows Obama leading McCain 48%-45% among registered voters and 51%-45% among likely voters. However, a Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 700 likely New Hampshire voters taken September 23 shows McCain leading Obama 49%-47%.
The Marist report was a survey of registered voters that found Obama with a 6% lead over McCain among likely voters and a 3% lead over McCain among registered voters, other statistics include:
77% of McCain supporters say they are firmly behind him while 81% of Obama's supporters strongly back him; only 4% of both candidates supporters say they could change their minds at the polls.
70% of Obama's backers are excited about their candidate while only 49% of McCain's are enthused.
52% of Obama supporters say the economy is their main focus while 39% of McCain's make the same claim and 16% of Obama's voters say the war in Iraq is a major concern while 5%of McCain's see it as a deciding issue.
Some of the other interesting points is that Obama has a lead among independent voters but more voters think McCain's economic record is stronger than Obama's. Also, New Hampshire voters view both Palin and Biden favorably.
Some interesting statistics from the Rasmussen report which was a telephone survey of 700 likely voters include:
Seventy-four percent (74%) of Obama voters say they will vote with enthusiasm for their candidate, a feeling shared by 68% of McCain voters.
Twenty-six percent (26%) of McCain voters say they’re voting primarily against Obama while 20% of Obama voters are voting primarily against McCain.
McCain is now viewed favorably by 60% of New Hampshire voters, Obama by 54%. Those figures reflect a three-point improvement for McCain and a single-point decline for Obama.
Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 53% in New Hampshire and unfavorably by 45%. For Delaware Senator Joe Biden, the numbers are 49% favorable and 45% unfavorable. Feelings both for and against are more strongly held about Palin.
Fifty-one percent (51%) say Palin was the right choice for McCain while 40% say Obama made the right decision in selecting Biden.
In other news, Obama has a slight lead among unaffiliated voters although his overall approval ratings in New Hampshire have been steadily decreasing since June. The state has gone from leaning Democratic to a toss-up in Rasmussen's balance of power ratings.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
50 Day Prediction
There are 50 days left to go before the presidential election in November and the polling in New Hampshire shows Senator McCain with a slight lead. The most recent poll was an internet poll conducted by Zogby on September 12 and it shows a 49-43 McCain lead over Senator Obama. In a poll conducted last week by CNN/Time Obama actually shows a substantial lead over McCain. Actually in a survey of multiple polls by Pollster.com, Obama leads in 14/22 of the polls conducted. However, several of the more recent polls show a McCain lead, and it is these which are slightly more accurate then some of the older polls conducted as far back as 2007.
In my opinion then, if the election were held today it would be close, but McCain would take New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Important Issues
In a poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire, researchers discovered that the most important issues to New Hampshire voters included education, Social Security, and health care. It is these issues, the poll states, that New Hampshire voters want candidates to address. Those polled also stated that the candidates stance on health care and campaign finance reform are the issues most likely to affect how they vote.
This poll was conducted in 1999 and while still relevant recognizes a few changes. In a more recent poll researching voters issues for the 2008 election, researchers discovered that the most important issue for New Hampshire Republicans is the war in Iraq, followed by illegal immigration, the economy, health care, homeland security, and foreign policy.
For Democratic voters polled the most important issue is healthcare, followed closely by the economy, social security, and gas prices, with the war in Iraq bringing up a close fifth in the rankings.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Demographic Geography
Here's a quick rundown of some of the more important demographic statistics; just the stats that are in some way relevant to politics and the presidential election, of the state of New Hampshire.
Registered Voters: Democratic: 221, 549 (26%); Republican: 256,353 (30.1%); Other: 372,934 (43.8%).
Estimated Population in 2006: 1,314,895
New Hampshire is one of the few states that still has more registered Republican voters than Democrats, although, as seen in their ratification of Iowa's Democratic caucus choice in 2000 and 2004, this doesn't mean the state is red. New Hampshire is also the state in which the first primary election is held.
It is often an unpredictable state. Bill Clinton carried the state in both the 1992 and 1996 election but in the 2000 election George Bush carried the state 48%-47% over Al Gore. In the 2004 election New Hampshire was the only state that went for Bush in 2000 and then switched and went for Kerry in 2004, albeit by only 1% of the vote.
The test in this 2008 election will be whether the state of New Hampshire will increase its trend towards becoming more Democratic or whether it will revert back to it's historical label as a red state. The people of New Hampshire do have a precedent for John McCain having supported both in this primary season and also in the 2000 primary against George Bush 49%-30%.
Registered Voters: Democratic: 221, 549 (26%); Republican: 256,353 (30.1%); Other: 372,934 (43.8%).
Estimated Population in 2006: 1,314,895
New Hampshire is one of the few states that still has more registered Republican voters than Democrats, although, as seen in their ratification of Iowa's Democratic caucus choice in 2000 and 2004, this doesn't mean the state is red. New Hampshire is also the state in which the first primary election is held.
It is often an unpredictable state. Bill Clinton carried the state in both the 1992 and 1996 election but in the 2000 election George Bush carried the state 48%-47% over Al Gore. In the 2004 election New Hampshire was the only state that went for Bush in 2000 and then switched and went for Kerry in 2004, albeit by only 1% of the vote.
The test in this 2008 election will be whether the state of New Hampshire will increase its trend towards becoming more Democratic or whether it will revert back to it's historical label as a red state. The people of New Hampshire do have a precedent for John McCain having supported both in this primary season and also in the 2000 primary against George Bush 49%-30%.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Primary results
New Hampshire obviously holds one of the most important primary proceedings, it being the first. Here are the official results from that primary.
Democrats:
22 pledged delegates, 8 unpledged
Candidates Votes %
Hillary Rodham Clinton 112,404 39.1
Barack Obama 104,815 36.5
John Edwards 48,699 16.9
Republicans:
Candidates Votes %
John McCain 88,571 37.1
Mitt Romney 75,546 31.6
Mike Huckabee 26,859 11.2
Rudolph W. Giuliani 20,439 8.6
Ron Paul 18,308 7.7
Monday, September 1, 2008
Which way did the primaries go?
New Hampshire just so happens to be one of the more important states in the primary season. It is the first state in the nation to hold the primary and it's results are important to candidates both strategically and emotionally. This year the primary, which took place in early January, began with a strong pull for Obama on the Democratic side and one for McCain and the Republicans. Edwards also felt good about New Hampshire in this early stage of the campaign, but the result went overwhelmingly the way of Clinton who garnered 112, 000 votes to Obama's 104,000. McCain led the final vote count for Republicans with 88,000 votes to Romney's 75,000. From looking at these results it is clear that the New Hampshirians were hoping for a Clinton victory, but it is also clear that although Obama lost the vote count, more people in New Hampshire still showed up to vote for him than showed up to vote for McCain on the Republican side. What should that tell us about the nature of the state of New Hampshire and her political leanings?
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