Conflicting Polls

Polls Conflict In New Hampshire:
A Marist poll of 763 New Hampshire Registered Voters taken September 17-21 shows Obama leading McCain 48%-45% among registered voters and 51%-45% among likely voters. However, a Rasmussen Reports automated poll of 700 likely New Hampshire voters taken September 23 shows McCain leading Obama 49%-47%.

The Marist report was a survey of registered voters that found Obama with a 6% lead over McCain among likely voters and a 3% lead over McCain among registered voters, other statistics include:
77% of McCain supporters say they are firmly behind him while 81% of Obama's supporters strongly back him; only 4% of both candidates supporters say they could change their minds at the polls.
70% of Obama's backers are excited about their candidate while only 49% of McCain's are enthused.
52% of Obama supporters say the economy is their main focus while 39% of McCain's make the same claim and 16% of Obama's voters say the war in Iraq is a major concern while 5%of McCain's see it as a deciding issue.
Some of the other interesting points is that Obama has a lead among independent voters but more voters think McCain's economic record is stronger than Obama's. Also, New Hampshire voters view both Palin and Biden favorably.

Some interesting statistics from the Rasmussen report which was a telephone survey of 700 likely voters include:
Seventy-four percent (74%) of Obama voters say they will vote with enthusiasm for their candidate, a feeling shared by 68% of McCain voters.
Twenty-six percent (26%) of McCain voters say they’re voting primarily against Obama while 20% of Obama voters are voting primarily against McCain.
McCain is now viewed favorably by 60% of New Hampshire voters, Obama by 54%. Those figures reflect a three-point improvement for McCain and a single-point decline for Obama.
Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 53% in New Hampshire and unfavorably by 45%. For Delaware Senator Joe Biden, the numbers are 49% favorable and 45% unfavorable. Feelings both for and against are more strongly held about Palin.
Fifty-one percent (51%) say Palin was the right choice for McCain while 40% say Obama made the right decision in selecting Biden.

In other news, Obama has a slight lead among unaffiliated voters although his overall approval ratings in New Hampshire have been steadily decreasing since June. The state has gone from leaning Democratic to a toss-up in Rasmussen's balance of power ratings.

50 Day Prediction

There are 50 days left to go before the presidential election in November and the polling in New Hampshire shows Senator McCain with a slight lead.  The most recent poll was an internet poll conducted by Zogby on September 12 and it shows a 49-43 McCain lead over Senator Obama.  In a poll conducted last week by CNN/Time Obama actually shows a substantial lead over McCain.  Actually in a survey of multiple polls by Pollster.com, Obama leads in 14/22 of the polls conducted.  However, several of the more recent polls show a McCain lead, and it is these which are slightly more accurate then some of the older polls conducted as far back as 2007.

In my opinion then, if the election were held today it would be close, but McCain would take New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes.

Important Issues

In a poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire, researchers discovered that the most important issues to New Hampshire voters included education, Social Security, and health care.  It is these issues, the poll states, that New Hampshire voters want candidates to address.  Those polled also stated that the candidates stance on health care and campaign finance reform are the issues most likely to affect how they vote.

This poll was conducted in 1999 and while still relevant recognizes a few changes.  In a more recent poll researching voters issues for the 2008 election, researchers discovered that the most important issue for New Hampshire Republicans is the war in Iraq, followed by illegal immigration, the economy, health care, homeland security, and foreign policy.

For Democratic voters polled the most important issue is healthcare, followed closely by the economy, social security, and gas prices, with the war in Iraq bringing up a close fifth in the rankings.

Demographic Geography

Here's a quick rundown of some of the more important demographic statistics; just the stats that are in some way relevant to politics and the presidential election, of the state of New Hampshire.
Registered Voters: Democratic: 221, 549 (26%); Republican: 256,353 (30.1%); Other: 372,934 (43.8%).
Estimated Population in 2006: 1,314,895

New Hampshire is one of the few states that still has more registered Republican voters than Democrats, although, as seen in their ratification of Iowa's Democratic caucus choice in 2000 and 2004, this doesn't mean the state is red. New Hampshire is also the state in which the first primary election is held.
It is often an unpredictable state. Bill Clinton carried the state in both the 1992 and 1996 election but in the 2000 election George Bush carried the state 48%-47% over Al Gore. In the 2004 election New Hampshire was the only state that went for Bush in 2000 and then switched and went for Kerry in 2004, albeit by only 1% of the vote.
The test in this 2008 election will be whether the state of New Hampshire will increase its trend towards becoming more Democratic or whether it will revert back to it's historical label as a red state. The people of New Hampshire do have a precedent for John McCain having supported both in this primary season and also in the 2000 primary against George Bush 49%-30%.

Primary results

New Hampshire obviously holds one of the most important primary proceedings, it being the first.  Here are the official results from that primary.

Democrats:

22 pledged delegates, 8 unpledged

Candidates Votes %

Hillary Rodham Clinton 112,404 39.1

Barack Obama 104,815 36.5

John Edwards 48,699 16.9

Republicans:

Candidates Votes %

John McCain 88,571 37.1

Mitt Romney 75,546 31.6

Mike Huckabee 26,859 11.2

Rudolph W. Giuliani 20,439 8.6

Ron Paul 18,308 7.7

Which way did the primaries go?

New Hampshire just so happens to be one of the more important states in the primary season.  It is the first state in the nation to hold the primary and it's results are important to candidates both strategically and emotionally.  This year the primary, which took place in early January, began with a strong pull for Obama on the Democratic side and one for McCain and the Republicans.  Edwards also felt good about New Hampshire in this early stage of the campaign, but the result went overwhelmingly the way of Clinton who garnered 112, 000 votes to Obama's 104,000.  McCain led the final vote count for Republicans with 88,000 votes to Romney's 75,000.  From looking at these results it is clear that the New Hampshirians were hoping for a Clinton victory, but it is also clear that although Obama lost the vote count, more people in New Hampshire still showed up to vote for him than showed up to vote for McCain on the Republican side.  What should that tell us about the nature of the state of New Hampshire and her political leanings?