It just keeps looking worse for Senator John McCain in New Hampshire. A new poll was released this week by WMUR at the University of New Hampshire showing Senator Obama leading McCain 58% to 33%. The poll was conducted from October 25-27 and polled 652 voters.
Obama has widened his overall lead over McCain and also his lead among independent voters, a crucial vote, in the state.
The poll also found the most important issues for New Hampshirians in the election are jobs and the economy, followed by the war in Iraq, the campaign against terrorism, the recent stock market crash, and health care. This seems to represent the general national trend in which concerns about the economy and related matters have substantially reduced the importance of otherwise big issues such as Iraq and healthcare.
This poll and others like it look increasingly bad for McCain in a state he was banking on to win.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Monday, October 27, 2008
Congress seat up for grabs
The first congressional district is embroiled in a race either candidate can win according to Dan Tuohy of the "Union Leader." In a recent article in the publication Tuohy chronicles the race between Democrat incumbent Carol Shea-Porter, and former 1st district congressman Republican Jeb Bradley. Two years ago in 2006 Shea-Porter upset Bradley, and Bradley "aims to return the favor." Either candidate could win the race which has, like every other government position up for grabs, become all about the economy.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Advertising Update
McCain's campaign has decreased their spending on advertisements in the state each week for several weeks running, a practice seconded by second district GOP candidate Jennifer Horn. This could mean bad things for the GOP in the state, or it could just mean that the campaigns are allocating resources to other forms of communication and campaigning. We'll know soon enough what it means and what its consequences are though.
Emily's List in NH
In today's edition of the Nashua Telegraph there is an article entitled "Emily's List targeting new voters in NH."
I must admit I had never heard of the group before the article but was intrigued.
Apparently Emily's List is a liberal special-interest group supporting abortion rights and they have begun an aggressive project in New Hampshire that could help Democrat Jeanne Shaheen defeat Republican John Sununu in the U.S Senate race here.
The group practices micro-targeting; researching potential Democratic voters who could vote for Shaheen and send them pro-Shaheen mail and poll the targeted voters and those who weren't.
According to the article the group will have sent more than 700,000 pieces of mail by Election Day. Whether this group and their efforts have an impact on the Election or not may never be known, but Sheehan's chances of winning the seat grow daily, just as the Democratic presidential nominee Obama's popularity in the state.
I must admit I had never heard of the group before the article but was intrigued.
Apparently Emily's List is a liberal special-interest group supporting abortion rights and they have begun an aggressive project in New Hampshire that could help Democrat Jeanne Shaheen defeat Republican John Sununu in the U.S Senate race here.
The group practices micro-targeting; researching potential Democratic voters who could vote for Shaheen and send them pro-Shaheen mail and poll the targeted voters and those who weren't.
According to the article the group will have sent more than 700,000 pieces of mail by Election Day. Whether this group and their efforts have an impact on the Election or not may never be known, but Sheehan's chances of winning the seat grow daily, just as the Democratic presidential nominee Obama's popularity in the state.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
10 Days to Go!
In a state that carried John McCain in two primaries, 2000 and 2008, and a state John McCain has been once again counting on to carry him to victory in this election, its looking grimmer and grimmer for the Republican.
According to Pollster.com Senator Barack Obama leads Senator McCain in the polls by about 5 percentage points, pollster polls showing Obama with 49.9% to McCain's 44.4%.
Polling website Fivethirtyeight.com already shows New Hampshire as a blue state, in other words, they're pretty sure the state's four electoral votes are going to go for the Obama this election.
While most trends are negative for McCain in the state, there is no denying that the state will be close on election day, and according to the most recent Zogby interactive poll, conducted on October 19 with 466 people, the two candidates are in a dead heat, separated only by several tenths of a point.
Issues that are important to New Hampshirians, things such as the war and taxes would seemingly favor McCain and have favored the Republican candidate in the past in the state, so it would be quite surprising if, even were McCain to lose in the state, Republican voters did not make a good showing.
So with about ten days to go until election day, and early voting already in full swing, the state of New Hampshire appears too close to call, but if I were forced to choose today, I would say that the state will inevitably swing Democratic this election day, delivering their four electoral votes to Barack Obama.
According to Pollster.com Senator Barack Obama leads Senator McCain in the polls by about 5 percentage points, pollster polls showing Obama with 49.9% to McCain's 44.4%.
Polling website Fivethirtyeight.com already shows New Hampshire as a blue state, in other words, they're pretty sure the state's four electoral votes are going to go for the Obama this election.
While most trends are negative for McCain in the state, there is no denying that the state will be close on election day, and according to the most recent Zogby interactive poll, conducted on October 19 with 466 people, the two candidates are in a dead heat, separated only by several tenths of a point.
Issues that are important to New Hampshirians, things such as the war and taxes would seemingly favor McCain and have favored the Republican candidate in the past in the state, so it would be quite surprising if, even were McCain to lose in the state, Republican voters did not make a good showing.
So with about ten days to go until election day, and early voting already in full swing, the state of New Hampshire appears too close to call, but if I were forced to choose today, I would say that the state will inevitably swing Democratic this election day, delivering their four electoral votes to Barack Obama.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Automated Calling
According to UnionLeader.com the race in New Hampshire is one of the places where Republicans are using automated calls to try to link Barack Obama to former terrorist William Ayers. The call says the following:
“Hello. I’m calling for John McCain and the RNC because you need to know that Barack Obama has worked closely with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers, whose organization bombed the U.S. capitol, the Pentagon, a judge’s home and killed Americans. And Democrats will enact an extreme leftist agenda if they take control of Washington. Barack Obama and his Democratic allies lack the judgment to lead our country. This call was paid for by McCain-Palin 2008 and the Republican National Committee at 202-863-8500.”
This campaign tactic has been heavily criticized by not only the Democrats but also Republicans and people within McCain's campaign. McCain state chairman Peter Spaulding stated that while he does not love the practice it is wrong to label the calls inaccurate, he simply thinks they are annoying.
The Democrats were so opposed to the practice they brought in Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts to criticize the calls within the state directly to the voters.
The consensus among Republicans opposed to the calls seems to simply be that the calls are annoying and maybe not completely relevant with their focus on Obama's ties to Ayers, but they are accurate and cannot be criticized as untrue. How much impact they're going to have? As of yet that remains to be seen but if polling is any indication, they haven't had much of impact as McCain still trails Obama by a sizeable amount in the state.
“Hello. I’m calling for John McCain and the RNC because you need to know that Barack Obama has worked closely with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers, whose organization bombed the U.S. capitol, the Pentagon, a judge’s home and killed Americans. And Democrats will enact an extreme leftist agenda if they take control of Washington. Barack Obama and his Democratic allies lack the judgment to lead our country. This call was paid for by McCain-Palin 2008 and the Republican National Committee at 202-863-8500.”
This campaign tactic has been heavily criticized by not only the Democrats but also Republicans and people within McCain's campaign. McCain state chairman Peter Spaulding stated that while he does not love the practice it is wrong to label the calls inaccurate, he simply thinks they are annoying.
The Democrats were so opposed to the practice they brought in Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts to criticize the calls within the state directly to the voters.
The consensus among Republicans opposed to the calls seems to simply be that the calls are annoying and maybe not completely relevant with their focus on Obama's ties to Ayers, but they are accurate and cannot be criticized as untrue. How much impact they're going to have? As of yet that remains to be seen but if polling is any indication, they haven't had much of impact as McCain still trails Obama by a sizeable amount in the state.
Adversaries on the Warpath
Well, shocking as it may be, Clinton is not done on the campaign trail this election. This afternoon Senator Hilary Clinton announced that she will be in New Hampshire next week campaigning for her former opponent Senator Obama.
In a conference call she spoke of the importance of New Hampshire for the election and also vocalized criticism of the way Senator McCain has been conducting his campaign.
In other New Hampshire campaign news, the McCain campaign has announced that on Thursday Senator Lieberman and former Governor of New Jersey Christine Todd Whitman will both be campaigning in the state. Senator McCain himself will be stopping in the state tomorrow for a rally at St. Anselm College.
Although the polls are continually becoming more favorable to the Democrats and Obama this election, as I seem to keep repeating, it is not over yet and the Republicans are not finished here.
In a conference call she spoke of the importance of New Hampshire for the election and also vocalized criticism of the way Senator McCain has been conducting his campaign.
In other New Hampshire campaign news, the McCain campaign has announced that on Thursday Senator Lieberman and former Governor of New Jersey Christine Todd Whitman will both be campaigning in the state. Senator McCain himself will be stopping in the state tomorrow for a rally at St. Anselm College.
Although the polls are continually becoming more favorable to the Democrats and Obama this election, as I seem to keep repeating, it is not over yet and the Republicans are not finished here.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Palin Power
At a rally in Dover on Monday Sarah Palin made her first campaign stop in the state as she kicks off her first swing through the New England states.
She delivered a "toned-down stump speech" and called for a McCain comeback a la his New Hampshire primary comeback in January. she also attempted to appeal to the people of New Hampshire by praising their state and making comparisons to her own state and people.
The main focus of the speech was on economic issues such as taxes and federal spending and Palin succeeded in generating less angry outbursts concerning her opponent and more genuine partisanship excitement at this rally.
She delivered a "toned-down stump speech" and called for a McCain comeback a la his New Hampshire primary comeback in January. she also attempted to appeal to the people of New Hampshire by praising their state and making comparisons to her own state and people.
The main focus of the speech was on economic issues such as taxes and federal spending and Palin succeeded in generating less angry outbursts concerning her opponent and more genuine partisanship excitement at this rally.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Does New Hampshire really matter?
The quick answer would be yes, New Hampshire matters immensely in the presidential race. But for a state that only has four electoral votes, it sure seems like a lot of fuss for nothing. Why is New Hampshire so important?
Obviously from the number of campaign stops, the presidential contenders recognize the state's importance. They remember that it was New Hampshire's four electoral votes that tipped the scales in George Bush's favor in 2000 and therefore it was these four electoral votes that cost Al Gore the presidency.
A recent study conducted by the University of New Hampshire also finds that a third of potential voters this election have just recently become eligible to vote. The same study also finds that these new voters are far more likely to identify with the Democratic party than Republicans, seconding other studies that have shown New Hampshire becoming increasingly bluer as time goes by, or, as some put it, New Hampshire should now be color-coded "purple."
These findings, from the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire, are based on analysis by three experts -- in demography, polling, and election registration data -- of recently released demographic, polling and voter registration data.
All of these findings simply leave one to wonder whether New Hampshire can even be defined as a swing state anymore. I guess we'll find out on November 4.
Obviously from the number of campaign stops, the presidential contenders recognize the state's importance. They remember that it was New Hampshire's four electoral votes that tipped the scales in George Bush's favor in 2000 and therefore it was these four electoral votes that cost Al Gore the presidency.
A recent study conducted by the University of New Hampshire also finds that a third of potential voters this election have just recently become eligible to vote. The same study also finds that these new voters are far more likely to identify with the Democratic party than Republicans, seconding other studies that have shown New Hampshire becoming increasingly bluer as time goes by, or, as some put it, New Hampshire should now be color-coded "purple."
These findings, from the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire, are based on analysis by three experts -- in demography, polling, and election registration data -- of recently released demographic, polling and voter registration data.
All of these findings simply leave one to wonder whether New Hampshire can even be defined as a swing state anymore. I guess we'll find out on November 4.
Busy New Hampshire
Courtesy of Boston Globe:
New Hampshire will continue its central role in the presidential race on Thursday.
John McCain's campaign just announced that his daughter Meghan will campaign in the state, meeting volunteers at the campaign office in Nashua, then spending time with students at the University of New Hampshire in Durham.
Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama will also be in the state, for a rally in Londonderry.
Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her husband Todd are both stumping in New Hampshire today.
Along with these notable visits, Senator and Vice Presidential candidate Joe Biden spoke Monday in several important New Hampshire districts, criticizing McCain and praising New Hampshirians for their wisdom. Recent polls show Obama with a sizable but not insurmountable lead in the state that is being heavily sought after by Republicans as well.
Biden was well received at both of his speaking stops, although when he campaigned for president in the state in both 1988 and 2008, he was given a lackluster reception. He was cheered for his criticisms of Bush and his promise to withdraw the troops from Iraq.
Although the race is close and seems slightly tilted in Obama's favor, the Republicans are still pushing as Governor Sarah Palin makes her first visit to the state since joining the McCain ticket and McCain sends his daughter in to do some more campaign work tomorrow.
New Hampshire will continue its central role in the presidential race on Thursday.
John McCain's campaign just announced that his daughter Meghan will campaign in the state, meeting volunteers at the campaign office in Nashua, then spending time with students at the University of New Hampshire in Durham.
Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama will also be in the state, for a rally in Londonderry.
Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her husband Todd are both stumping in New Hampshire today.
Along with these notable visits, Senator and Vice Presidential candidate Joe Biden spoke Monday in several important New Hampshire districts, criticizing McCain and praising New Hampshirians for their wisdom. Recent polls show Obama with a sizable but not insurmountable lead in the state that is being heavily sought after by Republicans as well.
Biden was well received at both of his speaking stops, although when he campaigned for president in the state in both 1988 and 2008, he was given a lackluster reception. He was cheered for his criticisms of Bush and his promise to withdraw the troops from Iraq.
Although the race is close and seems slightly tilted in Obama's favor, the Republicans are still pushing as Governor Sarah Palin makes her first visit to the state since joining the McCain ticket and McCain sends his daughter in to do some more campaign work tomorrow.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Michelle Obama Rally
At a rally in Keene, New Hampshire, Mrs. Obama on Wednesday spoke to college students and contrasted her husband's debate performance the previous night with his opponent, who throughout her speech remained nameless. She called Senator Obama "smart, calm, respectful, intelligent, and connected," among other praises. She also stressed the importance of the student vote and the importance of the vote in New Hampshire as well.
This was not the first time for Mrs. Obama to visit the important swing state but it was her first time to directly appeal to the students in the state, a vote Senator Obama has been courting throughout his campaign (see story).
This was not the first time for Mrs. Obama to visit the important swing state but it was her first time to directly appeal to the students in the state, a vote Senator Obama has been courting throughout his campaign (see story).
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Senate Race
There is a senate seat opening up in this election for New Hampshirians, but it doesn't look as if it will be much of a contest. Senator John Sununu, the Republican is being challenged by 3-time Democratic governor Jeanne Shaheen. Early polling gives Shaheen a double-digit lead. Since 2006 when Sununu was elected the Democrats have pretty much taken over the state, with a Democratic governor and a house full of Democrats.
Mrs. Obama in NH
Michelle Obama will be back in New Hampshire tomorrow, Wednesday, and is set to have a rally at Keene State College at 11:30 a.m. Apparently Obama's campaign directors understand the importance of this state and Mrs. Obama will be stressing the importance of voter registration for young people in tomorrow's rally.
Another new poll
Since the pollsters never rest, we have yet another new poll from the state of New Hampshire today that shows Senator Obama up by eight points in this important state. This poll consisted of 813 likely voters and showed 53% supporting Obama to 45% for McCain.
Looks like another swing state is leaning heavily towards Obama.
Looks like another swing state is leaning heavily towards Obama.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
NH: Live Free or Die
Several weeks ago Senators John McCain and Barrack Obama made campaign stops in New Hampshire. McCain however, chose for his campaign stop what else but a Nascar race, making it McCain's first real effort to court the Nascar vote, a sizeable group of people in the country.
New Hampshire has historically been a reliable, Republican voting state, but in the 2006 elections, Democrats won both house seats, re-elected their Democratic governor John Lynch, and won control of both houses in the state, questioning their loyalty to the Republicans.
To further prove the point, most polling know shows the two presidential candidates locked in a dead heat in the state.
Regardless, the McCain campaign stop was used for the two-fold purpose of courting the Nascar vote and endeavoring to win some support from New Hampshirians, probably the only state in the Northeast both candidates consider up for grabs.
New Hampshire has historically been a reliable, Republican voting state, but in the 2006 elections, Democrats won both house seats, re-elected their Democratic governor John Lynch, and won control of both houses in the state, questioning their loyalty to the Republicans.
To further prove the point, most polling know shows the two presidential candidates locked in a dead heat in the state.
Regardless, the McCain campaign stop was used for the two-fold purpose of courting the Nascar vote and endeavoring to win some support from New Hampshirians, probably the only state in the Northeast both candidates consider up for grabs.
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